Las diez lecciones que un trader debe aprender

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.

1) Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading – This was really the motivating factor behind my writing the new book. Many traders experience stress and frustration because they are trading poorly and lack a true edge in the marketplace. Working on your emotions will be of limited help if you are putting your money at risk and don’t truly have an edge.

2) Emotional disruption is present even among the most successful traders – A trading method that produces 60% winners will experience four consecutive losses 2-3% of the time and as much time in flat performance as in an uptrending P/L curve. Strings of events (including losers) occur more often by chance than traders are prepared for.

3) Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.

4) Size kills – The surest path toward emotional damage is to trade size that is too large for one’s portfolio. We experience P/L in relation to our portfolio value. When we trade too large, we create exaggerated swings of winning and losing, which in turn create exaggerated emotional swings.

5) Training is the path to expertise – Think of every performance field out there—sports, music, chess, acting—and you will find that practice builds skills. Trading, in some ways, is harder than other performance fields because there are no college teams or minor leagues for development. From day one, we’re up against the pros. Without training and practice, we will lack the skills to survive such competition.

6) Successful traders possess rich mental maps - All successful trading boils down to pattern recognition and the development of mental maps that help us translate our perceptions of patterns into concrete trading behaviors. Without such mental maps, traders become lost in complexity.

7) Markets change – Patterns of volatility and trending are always shifting, and they change across multiple time frames. Because of this, no single trading method will be successful across the board for a given market. The successful trader not only masters markets, but masters the changes in those markets.

8) Even the best traders have periods of drawdown – As markets change, the best traders go through a process of relearning. The ones who succeed are the ones who save their money during the good times so that they can financially survive the lean periods.

9) The market you’re in counts as much toward performance as your trading method – Some markets are more volatile and trendy than others; some have more distinct patterns than others. Finding the right fit between trader, trading method, and market is key.

10) Execution and trade management count – A surprising degree of long-term trading success comes from getting good prices on entry and exit. The single best predictor of trading failure is when the average P/L of losing trades exceeds the average P/L of winners.

Las diez razones por las que un trader pierde su disciplina

Losing discipline is not a trading problem; it is the common result of a number of trading-related problems. Here are the most common sources of loss of discipline, culled from my work with traders:

10) Environmental distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus;

9) Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration;

8) Overconfidence follows a string of successes;

7) Unwillingness to accept losses, leading to alterations of trade plans after the trade has gone into the red;

6) Loss of confidence in one's trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested;

5) Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations;

4) Situational performance pressures, such as trading slumps and increased personal expenses, that change how traders trade (putting P/L ahead of making good trades);

3) Trading positions that are excessive for the account size, created exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions;

2) Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place;

1) Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality.

¿Coarta nuestra identificación con un partido politico nuestra capacidad de voto?

No pude por menos que reirme hace unos días cuando escuché a Zapatero decir: "...compañeros..las elecciones del 2004...fueron muy importantes...pero las próximas son DECISIVAS."

Tiene mucha razón ZP. Por supuesto que son decisivas...pero no para los españoles sino para D. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero que se puede quedar sin seguir siendo Presidente de Gobierno.

¿Pero qué le pasa a este hombre? ¿Sufre el síndrome de los directores de las organizaciones que identifican su beneficio o perjuicio personal con el de la organización, o piensa que los españoles somos gilipoyas? Yo apostaría por lo segundo.

Otra perla del razonamiento del sujeto. Portada de EL PAÍS. "Zapatero pide una amplia mayoría para frenar a la derecha." Nuevamente ¿o este hombre es incapaz de razonar o los incapaces somos nosotros que no se lo hacemos notar? ¿Qué tendrá que ver una amplia mayoría con frenar a la derecha? Yo comprendería que pidiese ganar las elecciones para gobernar, y que de este modo no gobierne el PP, pero la amplia mayoría a quien frena es a los nacionalistas, que no tienen tanta fuerza a la hora de vender su voto.

Leí un estudio de un catedrático de psiquiatria que apuntaba a una curiosa forma de comportamiento humano. Asombrosamente, sucede que cuando existe una discordancia entre lo que nos dicta nuestra razón y lo que nos pide el cuerpo sólo en una de cada cinco veces hacemos caso a nuestro cerebro.

Corolario: si los politicos son tan astutos de conseguir que nos identifiquemos con unas siglas políticas (son los nuestros) tienes garantizado el 80% de los votos de los identificados hagas lo que hagas. Vaya chollo.

Por favor, dejemos de seguir la política como si fuéramos forofos del Real Madrid o del Barcelona, y dejemos de pensar que cuando el Madrid ha ganado la Liga la hemos ganado nosotros, porque no es así: la han ganado los jugadores del equipo.

Que no nos ocurra lo mismo con la política. Y sobre todo que no se aprovechen de nuestras fobias a otros partidos. No debemos identificarnos con un partido político porque nos impedirá ser libres para enjuiciar y consecuentemente para votar. Los partidos contarán con nuestro voto y no necesitarán hacer bien su trabajo para salir reelegidos. Ya hemos podido ver cómo ni España se ha hundido cuando ha gobernado el PP ni cuando ha gobernado el PSOE, Por favor, aunque Intentan atemorizarnos con los cataclismos que ocurrirán cuendo gobiernen los otros, que no nos enturbie nuestra objetividad al analizar los acontecimientos y votar en consecuencia.